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Apps like istat pro mac11/6/2022 In fact, I wonder if next year, next summer, we actually have some negative growth, because this summer was so robust in some of these vacation areas with the pent up demand and so on. And we were focused on the narrowbodies at the time, and it became clear that that would recover first, and it has. We've got regions today that are above 2019 levels. We took the view back in June of 2020 that all of that was going to be exaggerated and that the original equipment market was going to actually end up being better off than people thought. I mean, we all remember we went a while where nobody was flying, you heard stories about one person on an airplane. The same thing was true, we even talked about narrowbody would take a while. We overreacted in one direction two years ago, which is where Jens came up with this long, long wait for widebody recovery, international recovery, made complete sense at the time. I'm going to want to go back two years ago because like anything else in the markets, there's a pendulum effect here. Rob Spingarn: I want to go backwards, Joe. Your note obviously talks about the pains in getting narrowbodies delivered, that the deliveries can't keep up with recovery and demand for air travel, but then you say the same phenomenon is beginning to occur in widebodies, and quote, "Nobody is watching." What do you mean by that? Joe Anselmo: Rob Spingarn, thanks for taking the time to join us. So there you go, there's a lot of thing that come into play here. I don't think I need to mention much the production issues on the 787 and even less so the 777 situation. The A350 is a little bit higher, but not much. I just checked, Airbus delivered 13 A330neos in the first eight months of the year. I would say the third factor is that production rates are very, very low. At the same time, we've seen this faster than expected surge in international demand now that travel restrictions have fallen. A lot of capacity has come out of the market and some of it will come back, but isn't yet back. A lot of airlines have retired four engined aircraft: A380s, A340s, 747-400s. There's four things that play into this in this surprisingly fast turnaround. Jens Flottau: Well, I guess it tells you, you shouldn't take too seriously what I'm saying or writing. So I want to ask you, are we past long, long now? Sixteen months ago on this podcast, we had a participant say, quote, "I think we're in for a long, long period of suppressed demand for widebodies." That person happened to be named Jens Flottau. Here to help make sense of this is Jens Flottau, Aviation Week's Executive Editor for commercial aviation who attended this week's ISTAT EMEA conference in Marrakech, Morocco. Joining Jens, is a special guest, Melius Research Managing Director and longtime aerospace analyst Rob Spingarn, who issued a research note this week on what he calls “the new widebody cycle.”Īnd rounding out our panel is one of Aviation Week's data gurus, Fleet, Flight and Forecast Manager Dan Williams. Now, that problem seems to have been flipped on its head, with concerns that demand for widebody jets could outstrip the ability of Airbus and Boeing to deliver them. Domestic air travel was rebounding sharply, but demand for international flights, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, remain deeply depressed. It wasn't that long ago that the market for widebody aircraft was on life support. I'm Joe Anselmo, Aviation Week's Editorial Director. Joe Anselmo: Welcome to this week's edition of the Check 6 podcast. Now there may not be enough of them.Īviation Week's Joe Anselmo, Jens Flottau and Dan Williams are joined by special guest Rob Springarn, Melius Research's lead research analyst for aerospace, to discuss how the market has changed.ĭon't miss a single episode. Subscribe to Aviation Week's Check 6 podcast in Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Amazon, Audible and Spotify.ĭiscover all of Aviation Week Network's podcasts on our Apple Podcasts channel or /podcasts.
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